Updated: July 4, 2026 · By Sanaullah Qaisrani · Pips Mill Markets Desk

Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Climbs to $62,838 as Weak US Jobs Report Fuels Fed Rate-Cut Bets — July 4, 2026

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading at $62,838, up +1.57% (+$973.87) in the last 24 hours, extending a rebound that began after a weaker-than-expected June US jobs report reignited hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The move follows a rough June in which BTC briefly dipped below $60,000, and comes as traders watch whether this "Green July" bounce can develop into a sustained recovery.

SHORT-TERM: BULLISH BOUNCE

$62,838.15 ▲ 1.57%

BTC/USD · Market Open · Data: Yahoo Finance, CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap

Live BTC Market Snapshot

Metric	Value
Price (USD)	$62,838.15
24h Change	+1.57% (+$973.87)
Market Cap	≈ $1.25 Trillion
24h Volume	≈ $23–26 Billion
Circulating Supply	≈ 20.05M BTC (Max 21M)
All-Time High	$126,198.07 (Oct 6, 2025)
Current vs ATH	≈ 50% below peak

Why Is Bitcoin Price Up Today?

Key driver: The June US jobs report came in well below forecasts — just 57,000 new jobs vs. ~115,000 expected, with unemployment easing to 4.2%. Weak labour data raised market odds that the Federal Reserve will hold off on further tightening, pushing capital back into risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

• Soft jobs data → rate-cut bets: Markets are pricing in a more dovish Fed path, a tailwind for BTC and other high-beta risk assets.
• "Green July" seasonal pattern: Bitcoin historically rebounds in July following a weak June ("red June, green July"), and early trading is following that script.
• Corporate accumulation continues: Tokyo-listed Metaplanet added 2,823 BTC to its treasury, lifting holdings to 43,000 BTC, reinforcing the institutional-accumulation narrative even amid broader ETF outflow pressure.
• Regulatory tailwinds: Progress on the US CLARITY Act and a joint SEC-CFTC interpretive release earlier this year continue to support the long-term institutional adoption case for crypto assets.
• ETH outperformance: Ethereum surged over 5% in the same session, and broad risk-on sentiment across majors is lifting BTC alongside it.

Trending Right Now in Crypto

• Bitcoin Core v31.1 stable release — privacy and node performance upgrades
• US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve framework expected by late July 2026
• BIP-360 quantum-resistant address migration roadmap under discussion
• Spot Bitcoin ETF flow reversal being closely watched after a weak June
• Altcoin Season Index still low (~46/100) — market remains Bitcoin-led

Technical View: Key Levels to Watch

BTC remains structurally in a corrective phase below its 200-day moving average near $65,200, but has reclaimed short-term momentum. A base case for July points to a $65,000–$70,000 recovery zone if support holds; a break below key support risks a retest of the low-$60,000s.

Support 1

$61,800

Support 2

$58,100

Resistance 1

$65,600

Resistance 2

$70,000

Trade Setup Bias

RANGE-BOUND, MILD BULLISH TILT

Holding above $61,800 keeps the short-term bounce intact toward $65,600. A confirmed close below $58,100 would invalidate the recovery structure and expose $55,000. This remains an oversold-bounce setup inside a broader bear structure — not a confirmed trend reversal.

Bitcoin Outlook: What's Next

Traders should watch upcoming US inflation data, Fed commentary, and spot ETF flow data over the coming week. A sustained move above the 50-month EMA (~$65,600) would meaningfully improve the medium-term picture; failure to hold current gains would keep BTC inside its 2026 corrective range.

Risk Disclosure: This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets, including Bitcoin, are highly volatile and carry significant risk of loss. Prices cited reflect market data at the time of writing and change continuously. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before trading or investing. Pips Mill and its authors accept no liability for losses incurred based on this content.

SQ

Sanaullah Qaisrani
Economics Graduate · Independent Market Analyst · Pips Mill